1. Colts (0-13)
2. Vikings (2-11)
3. Rams (2-10)
4. Panthers (4-9)
5. Redskins (4-9)
6. Browns (4-9)
7. Dolphins (4-9)
8. Jaguars (4-9)
9. Buccaneers (4-9)
10. Chiefs (5-8)
11. Eagles (5-8)
12. Bills (5-8)

Information via BleedingGreenNation.com.

Some Potential Targets at 11 (in no specific order):

Vontaze Burfict, a top 12 talent, could be a target at 11. However if concerns over his character increase around draft time, he could be a potential target with one of the Eagles two 2nd round picks ( image via Paul Connors, AP)

• Luke Kuechly, ILB,Boston College
• Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina
• Vontaze Burfict, LB, Arizona State
• Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa
• Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State (longshot)
• Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame
• Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina
• Robert Griffin, QB, Baylor (huge long shot, but I would not count this out as a possibility)

The Real Science Guy (via www.billnye.com)

A journalist gets exposure by making bold claims and following up by adequately supporting their point. The thing that irks me about Joyner is that he supports his outlandish claims with ridiculous stats that he generates (scientifically!). I like the ambition of trying to find new ways of evaluating players, but just because a writer created his own statistic (usually with an obnoxiously long acronym) does not necessarily translate to adequate support of their claim.

For instance, in Joyner’s newest column, Cowboys Built for Playoff Success (Insider Subscription Required), he makes an extremely bold claim and supports it with shaky evidence (although the evidence uses big words). I will first outline his main points then follow with a rebuttal.

His first point is that the NFC is full of pass heavy teams and Romo has highest yards per attempt on passes thrown 21 yards or more.

A number of metrics indicate Dallas would be capable of doing this — the Cowboys rank eighth with 7.9 yards per pass attempt and seventh with 3,249 total passing yards — but the one that may stand out the most is Tony Romo‘s totals in the stretch-vertical route depth metric.

Stretch-vertical routes are passes thrown 21 yards or more downfield, so they truly are the pass attempts that can stretch a defense to its breaking point (hence the name).

Through Week 13, Romo has gained 871 yards on 48 stretch-vertical pass attempts. That equates to 18.1 yards per attempt (YPA) in this category. (Note: The attempt and yardage totals include penalty plays such as pass interference and defensive holding.)

Next he states that DeMarco Murray and Felix Jones are great when they get good blocking (lol).

Murray and Jones have both posted an 8.2-yard mark in the good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metric this year. This game-tape review-based statistic gauges how productive a ball carrier is when he is given good blocking (which is loosely defined as when the blockers don’t allow the defense to do anything to disrupt a rush attempt).

Any total above the 7-yard mark in that category is considered superb, so Murray’s and Jones’ totals here are near elite.

If the linemen block well and the defense doesn't disrupt the rush, Felix Jones is elite! (image via DallasCowboys.com)

His final point, is that Romo has a low bad decision rate (a stat generated from his analysis) , so that should translate to a solid chance of him not turning the ball over in the playoffs. He starts by saying two other teams have been better in not turning the ball over, yet the Cowboys still have a “solid” shot at running the NFC.

Another key to beating the NFC contenders is winning the turnover battle. This is especially necessary to top the San Francisco 49ers and Packers, as they rank first and second in the league in turnover margin (plus-18 for the Niners, plus-16 for the Packers).

The general consensus about Romo is that he isn’t capable of consistently protecting the ball, but his showing in the bad decision rate (BDR) metric has actually been very good this year. (BDR measures how often a quarterback makes a mistake that leads either to a turnover or a near turnover such as a dropped interception or fumble recovered by the offense.)

Romo has a 1.8 percent BDR so far this season, a mark that history indicates is a top-10-caliber total. His numerous gaffes in the Detroit game notwithstanding, Romo has protected the ball quite well in 2011 and could hold his own against some of the top passers in the conference if the situation called for it.

To recap. The Cowboys, who play in the worst division in football this year (sadly), have a “solid shot at making a deep playoff run in the NFC” because:

• Tony Romo has a very high yards per attempt over 21 yards
• The Cowboys running backs do well when they get perfect run blocking and no defensive disruption
• Romo hasn’t been making bad decisions (a subjective stat)

All of that information is interesting, however it is extremely vague (despite fancy sounding stats) in supporting his bold initial claim that the Cowboys are in a solid position to beat teams such as Green Bay, San Francisco, New Orleans, etc. Even worse, this is pay only content on ESPN. It’s not hard to support your claim when the source behind your supporting statistics are categories that you made up. It doesn’t take a scientist to figure out running backs do well when their run blocking isn’t disrupted, however Joyner fails to mention some of the teams in the NFC are EXCELLENT as disrupting the run (especially San Fransisco).

For content that only paid-subscribers can fully access, I’m extremely disappointed that many articles are similar to these. They sound great as you are reading them, but when you break it down most analysis is vague at best. On Joyner’s webpage, he states “Information, not opinion, is the key to accurate analysis”. Which is true in the science world, we know the reaction to expect when we mix baking soda and vinegar. However when it comes to sp0rts, good analysis should include opinions. There are too many factors that go into each play that can drastically impact the final result. There are some games where team simply do not show up and get beaten by an inferior team. Its subjective analysis that makes sports so great and unpredictable.

Best Game of the Year for scrutinized DC Juan Castillo (Don Wright/AP)

Despite some very ugly plays, this was one of the best performances of the year.  Juan Castillo was finally able to figure it out and the defense flat-out dominated today.  The offense gave the Dolphins every opportunity to tie it up and the defense responded each time.  Castillo has been heavily scrutinized this season, so it’s only fair to point out when he succeeds.  Good job today Juan.

The Good

• Derek Landri.  Out of all the big free agency pickups, the one that got the least amount of coverage was probably the (re)signing of Derek Landri.  Surprisingly, he has been one of the most productive of the free agents we signed.  He and Cullen Jenkins have completely dominated any attempt by Miami on short yardage situations.  He continues to make big plays.
• Red Zone efficiency much improved this half.
• Defensive line continues to dominate.
• Andy Reid winning challenges this year! Who would have thought.

The Bad

• We have the lead, yet still refuse to run the ball.    Shady, when given the chance, has proved to be a great closer (I write this as the 4th quarter starts, still have time to redeem themselves).
• Vick looks rusty.  I guess that is to be expected after missing the past few weeks.
• What happened to DeSean Jackson the explosive return man?  He claims his return ability should net him more money, yet he has 0 returns this year for TD’s.  He was given quite a few opportunities and did nothing in the return game.

The Ugly

• Eagles offense gave the dolphins every chance to come back in this game.
• Stupid penalties.

You See What Happen's Andy? You See What Happens When You Give Shady the Ball? (image via last.fm/Big Lebowski)

Eagles have an extremely small change of making the playoffs.  They can go one of two ways.   Win out and make their season (somewhat) respectable or lose and get a high draft pick.  In the first quarter the Eagles seemed comfortable with the latter.  Thankfully, despite some BONEHEADED plays, Eagles find themselves ahead.

The Good

• Shady McCoy.  Shady has been one of the few bright spots this season.  He is clearly the best player on offense and needs more touches.
• Brian Rolle and Casey Matthews each with their first sack of the season.
• Brent Celek has finally reestablished himself as a weapon in this offense.  Completely trucked Vontae Davis.
• Nice to see DJax with a TD grab.
• The defense is playing the best they have in a long time.  Good for you Castillo.

The Bad

• Vick talked about players safer.  However I’m sure sliding in the pocket wasn’t part of the plan.
• Nnamdi, I would put this in the ugly, however it was a fantastic pass by Moore.  That being said, we are paying him to shut down his guy.
• Eagles red-zone defense and offense remains to struggle.

The Ugly

• Special Teams.  Punt block, DeSean fielding the ball in the 5 and whatever that was where DeSean threw the ball to Marsh for a fumble.
• I have to list this again, the throw on the punt by Jackson.
• Turnovers. More specifically turnovers on stupid plays.   Thankfully Miami has not been able to hold onto the ball either.

It is possible Luke Kuechly will remain an Eagle if he decides to enter the 2012 draft (Image Credit bloodsox.blogspots.com)

A guy who should be around when the Eagles pick (which can be anywhere from within the top 10 to top 15), Kuechly is definitely worth serious consideration.  Currently rated as the top ILB by ESPN, Kuechly is a down-hill linebacker and tackling machine.   Although I do like Jamar Chaney, his natural position is not MLB.  In fact we have not had a true middle linebacker since Jeremiah Trotter retired.  It is crazy to think how the Eagles year after year ignore the linebacker position, despite it being our defense’s Achilles heel for years.  To make matters worse, they draft “tweener” linebackers, emphasizing on small and fast linebackers.  This outlook has lead to failures such as Chris Gocong, Bryan Smith and Daniel Te o’nesheim.

Kuechly would be an excellent pick to end this trend.  He is a tackling machine with great instincts and most importantly a true inside linebacker.  This season alone, he recorded an outstanding 191 tackles and 3 INT’s.

Kuechly is Eagles writer Tommy Lawlor’s favorite prospect in the draft (if you are an Eagles fan and do not follow him, follow @LawlorNFL immediately)

Boston College middle linebacker Luke Kuechly is a junior that could come out. He is a great college player and my favorite prospect in the whole draft. Kuechly already holds the ACC career record for tackles and he’s just completed his junior year. He is a tackling machine. Kuechly leads the country in tackles this year and did so last season as well. Sometimes you see players credited with a bunch of tackles and then when you study the tape you see that those figures are bloated. That’s not the case with Kuechly. He has great instincts and is around the ball play after play. He uses his hands well and might be the best linebacker in the draft at shedding blocks. Kuechly (6-2, 235 pounds) has underrated cover skills. He has seven career interceptions and covers more ground than you expect. -Lawlor

A tackling machine, true inside linebacker, excellent at shedding blocks and underrated cover skills… Sounds exactly like what the Eagles have been missing for years.  Especially in a Wide-9 set,  a linebacker’s instincts and ability to shed blocks is crucial to the defense’s success.  Too many times have we seen Eagle linebackers attack the wrong gap or fail to shed a crucial block that has lead to a huge play.  Kuechly looks to be a great fit to what the Eagles need at linebacker.  If he decides to enter the draft, the Eagles need to strongly consider the top linebacker in the country.

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Andy Reid and the rest of us Eagles fans may have to look forward to baseball season unless they turn things around (Getty Images)

Today, ESPN predicted the Eagles to finish 8-8 and gave them only a 15.8 percent chance of making the playoffs (insider required).  I decided to look at the Eagles upcoming schedule myself and determine my prediction for the rest of the Eagles season ( more after the jump)

The Remaining Games:

Arizona

@NY Giants

New England

@Seattle

@Miami

NY Jets

@Dallas

Washington.

The games that should be an easy win:

Arizona:  Backup quarterback, terrible season, home game.  Should lead to a relatively easy win.

Seattle: Also a very weak team, no quarterback, beatable defense.

Miami:  Eagles thankfully play 3 of the weakest teams (not named the Colts) in their upcoming schedule.  That is a good thing as the Eagles cannot afford losses at this point.

If you chalk these up as a win (again nothing guaranteed with this team), that is three wins.  Not considering other the other games (yet), that would put us one game over .500, 6-5.

Teams we have beaten up this season, but not necessarily an easy win the 2nd time.

Dallas: We played our best game of the season against Dallas, but they always play us hard and with the game in week 16, this could have playoff implications (for one, or both of the teams).  It is also in Dallas.

Washington Yes Washington has been terrible lately, yes we whipped them pretty badly in Washington, but I am hesitant to put this in the chalk-it-up column.  There have been numerous seasons where the Eagles have lost to (in my opinion) an inferior Redskins team.

Recent Losses to the Redskins

• In 2010 , the (10-6) Eagles lost to the (6-10) Redskins at home
• In 2008,  the (9-6-1) Eagles lost to the (8-8) Redskins in both games.
• In 2007, the (9-7) Redskins beat the (8-8) Eagles

Tough Games Ahead

New York Giants: They beat us in our home opener and will be no cakewalk in NY.  The Giants do have a track record of struggling in the 2nd half, so we do have that going for us.

New England: Tom Brady is the QB, enough said tough game.  What we do have going for us is that NE is a pass first team and we do have the secondary to stop them (on paper at least).

New York Jets:  Good team with a great defense.  It could very well come down to which Mark Sanchez we see.
These games are all winnable, but if we do not improve our D and limit turnovers, we could very well lose 2 or 3 of these games.

Going off the paths from the 2nd tier:

Path A (8-5):

Path A1: Eagles win all three games: 11-5.  I can’t see us winning out.  We do have the talent, but with our inconsistent play, I’d be (pleasantly) suprised if we’d win-out.  I’m not getting my hopes up.

Path A2: Eagles win 2 of 3: 10-6.  I’d also be very surprised if we only lost one of the games.  Again, the talent is there and it isn’t too far-fetched, but it’s wishful thinking unless the Eagles get their heads out of the sand.

Path A3: Eagles win  1 of 3: 9-7.  This seems like a reasonable record.   This would put us in a spot where we could potentially sneak into the playoffs, but we would need a significant amount of help.

Path A4: Eagles lose all 3.  This would put us at 8-8 and out of the playoffs.

Path B (7-6):

Path B1:  Eagles win all three: 10-6.  Again I’d be shocked if they won all three of these games.  But 10-6 would be our ideal record if we want to make the playoffs without praying for too much outside help.

Path B2: Eagles win 2 of 3: 9-7.  See above, A3, about what this record would mean to us.

Path B3: Eagles win 1 of 3: 8-8.  See A4

Path B4:  Eagles lose all 3: 7-9.  All hell breaks lose in Philly.  Extremely angry fans, might be the end of Reid.

They could potentially have a worse record than 7-9, but I would be shocked.  Anything less than 7-9 and I can’t see how Big Red is back next season.

Which scenario’s do I think are the most likely?  A2, A3, B2, B3.  I see us finishing between 8-8 and 10-6.  If I had to guess which the path the ESPN article would be referring to it would be path B3.  Lets hope this is another season where the Eagles sneak into the playoffs, but if nothing changes with this team, its going to be tough to watch the NFL playoffs.

How do you think the Eagles will finish?

]]> http://community.mis.temple.edu/midnightgreen/2011/11/06/asante-samuel-wallpaper/feed/ 1 http://community.mis.temple.edu/midnightgreen/2011/10/30/harrisonhealth/ http://community.mis.temple.edu/midnightgreen/2011/10/30/harrisonhealth/#comments Sun, 30 Oct 2011 14:05:06 +0000 Michael J Skulsky http://community.mis.temple.edu/midnightgreen/?p=92

(Michael Heiman/Getty Images)

I was happy when the Eagles acquired Jerome Harrison for Ronnie Brown this past weekend  (I still can’t comprehend what Brown was thinking on that run-pass option) .  What seemed like a minor move for a proven backup running back ended up being a life changing event for Harrison.  During Jerome’s physical with the birds he complained of recurring headaches and a MRI was performed by Eagles doctors.   The MRI came back showing that Harrison had a brain tumor, something that would have gone unnoticed if not for the trade.   Because of the strange events that leaded to doctors discovering the tumor early, the prognosis for full recovery is very good one.  Harrison will miss football this season, but should go on to live a long and healthy life.  There are things bigger than football and I wish Jerome the best of luck with his recovery.