Section 004, Instructor: Laurel Miller

Weekly Question #1: Complete by January 21, 2016

Leave your response as a comment on this post by the beginning of class on January 21, 2016. Remember, it only needs to be three or four sentences. For these weekly questions, I’m mainly interested in your opinions, not so much particular “facts” from the class!

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Here is the question:

“Conventional wisdom” are statements people generally accept as true but are never really tested. One example is the belief that a company should avoid hiring people with criminal records. These can be supported or disproven through data – i.e., Evolv’s discovery that people with criminal records are up to 1.5% more productive than the average worker.

Give an example of a piece of conventional wisdom you’ve heard and explain what data you would collect to test it.

57 Responses to Weekly Question #1: Complete by January 21, 2016

  • An example of conventional wisdom is the belief that people who earn more money are happier than those who don’t have as much. Money is frequently associated with happiness, but there have been many reports of unhappiness associated with the rich. This statement can be supported or disproven through a self-reported happiness comparison between the lower, middle, and upper class.

  • A bit of wisdom that many people hold dear to their hearts is “once a cheater, always a cheater.” It is similar to the belief that one shouldn’t hire someone with a criminal record in that the general population likes to believe that people can not change. This could be tested by taking a random survey and interviews to see if those who admit to cheating in a prior relationship have tended to or feel drawn to do it again.

  • An example of conventional wisdom that I have heard throughout my life is that the most successful people are the smartest people. As I have been immersed in real-world experiences, however, I have observed that the most successful people aren’t necessarily the smartest, but rather those that have the drive and the will to succeed. A potential gathering of data to combat this contention could be to have CEO’s of Fortune 500 companies take IQ tests. It’s possible that the results would not be very high.

  • An example of conventional wisdom that intelligent people tend to look at the bigger picture in life compared to the average ones. This is what I have observed: that some of my friends, who is really smart and get the extremely high grades at school, usually have found out what he/she would do after graduation and also made the particular plan to achieve it. By the way, I suppose this could be tested easily by interviewing people, who are clever or have the high IQs, about what they wants to do in the future.

  • Many people believe that swimming within an hour after eating will cause you to have cramps. This could be disproven with the correct study. A way to test this would be to gather human subjects, have one half of them eat and swim, and have the other half only swim. Comparing the percentage of cramps in each group could produce conclusive results.

  • A conventional wisdom that is extremely prevalent in today’s society is that getting a higher education is vital and often times the only way to become an intelligent and successful adult. However, many times people attend colleges and universities, because they feel compelled to do so without really having any particular plans or goals, often making this experience a retro-effective one. A great way to test this would be to get a stratified random sample of individuals in the business world, either making above a certain income, or by volume of businesses, and testing how many of them went to college, obtained work experience at a young age, or courageously decided to use free knowledge and their own wisdom and experience lead them to the path of success.

  • An example of a conventional wisdom is the belief that movies are only successful if it stars a famous actor/actress. Although this may be true as the audience will be more inclined to watch a movie in which their favorite actors/actresses are in, but there has been many movies with no real star and it has become a big hit. This can be tested by comparing movies with famous actors/actresses with those without them and see which has been a success.

  • A common conventional wisdom that people believe is that if you want to lose weight you should do a lot of cardio. However, it is true that high intensity intervals are better for weight loss. This theory could be tested by getting a simple random sample of people and splitting them into two groups and have them all on the same diet with one group doing cardio and the other doing high intensity workouts for a month and tracking their weight loss to see which method of working out is more effective with weight loss based on the percent of weight loss each group of people had.

  • A common piece of conventional wisdom that is frequently addressed is that all physicists are atheists. However, that is a common misconception. A physicist may study the formation and operations of earth, but it does not mean they do not believe in religion. This can be proven with gathering and examination of data. The best way for a student like myself to gather data is to go to the physics department in Temple and neighboring colleges. There I would survey physic professors and students who are majoring in the subject. This data could be organized into physicists who are atheist versus physicists who are religious.

  • I had been raised on a statement of conventional wisdom that is, in fact, inaccurate. Despite the common perception, going outside with wet hair does not cause pneumonia. My mother insisted that I never go out with a wet head so that I could stay healthy. Due to data, scientists now know that this act cannot cause pneumonia. They arrived at this conclusion after collecting data of what pneumonia is and comparing it to different environments. For example, pneumonia is a bacteria and viral illness, therefore the cold outside is unlikely to be where the illness was contracted. Bacteria cannot survive in the cold, but instead inside the home where people are accumulating germs. Thus going outside with a wet head and contracting pneumonia are uncorrelated.

  • A bit of conventional wisdom that I have been told throughout my entire life is that “practice makes perfect”. However, this can never really be accomplished because nobody is perfect. We see examples of this all the time such as NBA players missing shots during games or athletes in the Olympics not sticking the landing. Even they mess up and are considered to be the very best at what they do. This could be disproven through a series of tests where a group of individuals, both men and women with various backgrounds and levels of capability, are asked to practice or repetitively do something for as long as they need and then tested for “perfection” once they think they’ve mastered it.

  • ‘An apple a day, keeps doctor away.’ This is a common conventional wisdom known by people. However, people ill for many reasons, disease inflections still relate to human body, which is one of the most mysterious things in our living world. As a kind of fruit, apples provides sorts of vitamins to human bodies, contributing a lot to human body defense immune system. But not everyone who constantly eats apple would get away with illness as some cases pop up, that people get disease even though they have apples. A great way to test it, tracking the diet of one kind of people who eat apples while another group of people who don’t. In addition, we could control the test by separating people into few group for different number of apples to see if number of apples relates to it. After all, this is the saying that last generations concerned about, times change a lot of things. Diseases among us now is the electronic device version of apple!

  • One piece of conventional wisdom that I’ve heard is that the more time you spend practicing something, the better you get at it. This can be applied to sports related skills, math skills and others. One way you can test this piece of wisdom is by having 3 groups do the same task. Group A would only do the task when necessary. Group C would practice the task for an average of 12 hours in between testing. And group B would practice the task half of the time of Group C. The distinction between Group B and Group C could show an interesting pattern as it could evince an outcome not directly in agreement with the model/hypothesis such as: practicing for some amount of time is beneficial, however practicing over a certain amount of time may not be,

  • One piece of conventional wisdom that I have heard throughout my life time is “It’s not all about intelligence.” This mainly applies to the job you have and the money you receive as a result of getting good grades in school. In order to test this, I would have to find a good number of people with the same job and close to the same pay and find out what each of their GPA’s were. This would allow me to find out if companies hire solely off “intelligence” or if other factors come into play.

  • An example of conventional wisdom is that people retain more information reading from the physical copy of a textbook rather than the e-book. I believe reading from the physical textbook you retain more information as you are more likely to be actively reading rather than just reading words on a screen. This statement can be supported or disproven through a test solely on a reading where half the test group reads the physical copy of the textbook and the other half reads the e-book.

  • One example of conventional wisdom is that when people have a cold, they should not eat the chicken, eggs and many other foods in Chinese culture. Because it is believed that those food will make the illness worse. However, many professional doctors and nutritionists insist that those food contain lots of necessary elements for us physical bodies no matter we are sick or not. Also, the chicken and eggs will not make the bodies worse, in contrast, the elements like protein inside would help you get stronger. And I tried to test it twice when I had a cold, the result is that those food will not affect to illness. In general, the recovery phase of cold is about one week.

  • Some convetional wisdom that I have heard is that you have to go to collge and get a degree to be sucessful. I personaly know several peole that are sucessful or on their way to being a sucess who have never done more than graduate high school, and many more that went into a career different from what they got a degree in. To test the frequency of this all you need is to survey people.

  • One example of conventional wisdom is that salt is harmful to a person’s diet and health. We think of that today as common sense but in reality it has little evidence that can back that statement up. Scientists have recently found that too little of salt in someone’s diet can be more harmful. We can try and test this by gathering two people with relatively the same health and lifestyle then change their previous diets. You can assign one with a high salt intake diet and the other with a low, close to nothing, salt intake diet. After a couple weeks we test the areas that doctors originally stated were affected negatively by salt and the areas of a persons health that are said to be affected with low salt intake. We can test their blood pressure, likeliness of a stoke, sugar levels for type 2 diabetes, etc. After an extended period of time and couple tests we can see if salt is actually the factor in a person’s bad health.

  • One piece of conventional wisdom that I have heard is that “breakfast is the most important meal of the day.” Many people believe that in order to achieve a successful and productive day, one must eat an adequate breakfast. This idea can be tested by gathering two groups of people. One group would be provided with a nutritious breakfast while another would not be provided with a breakfast. These two groups would partake in various tasks and be measured on their performance. Based on performance, one would be able to identify the effectiveness of having breakfast.

  • Conventional wisdom often conveys the idea that young parents are usually the worst, and have the least to give to their children. This could easily be fought against and disproven by various data tests, perhaps by interviewing various teenagers and to have them rate their childhoods. Obviously this would include other variables, so there would need to be a way to narrow the data collection. As a child who has a mother only 18 years older than them, I can say myself that such wisdom is untrue, and could most definitely be fought by performing some sort of study that attempts to find a correlation between age of parents and happiness.

  • A piece of conventional wisdom that I am familiar with is “Reading books regularly makes one more knowledgeable and intelligent”. One way to test whether this statement is true or not is to conduct a survey. Firstly, randomly selected participants will provide the average number of books they read per year. All surveyed participants will then take cognitive tests and a general knowledge test. Meaningful patterns between the average numbers of books read annually and these test scores, which are relative measurements of intelligence and knowledge, can confirm or disprove the statement above.

  • An example of conventional wisdom is drinking cold water is bad for people in traditional Chinese medicine. I believe it is very common for every people who is from China. However, in many western countries, people drink a lot of cold water. And they are still very healthy. This statement can be supported or disproven through taking a random survey and interviews with people who are used to drink cold water and people who are barely drink cold water by asking and observing their healthy status and feeling.

  • As a big sports fan, an example of conventional wisdom that I hear often is that “practice makes perfect”. Michael Jordan is the epitome of this bit of conventional wisdom. He worked harder than anybody else in the entire NBA and practiced for hours each and every day, even after games that wiped out all of his energy. He practiced his basketball skills more than anybody else, and he has five MVP awards and six championship trophies to back it up. While this is just one example, there are plenty of players in the NBA that are the first ones on the court and the last ones to leave that have developed tremendously due to their commitment to practicing,

  • An example of a conventional wisdom that I often hear is, “The early bird gets the worm”. Many people believe that a morning person is more likely to be productive and successful, as an early bird tends to be energetic and proactive during the day while a night owl always feels sleepy. However, night owls can also get their worms. Science has collected data and done many experiments to show that night owls are actually more artistic and more risk-seeking, which can even lead to higher chances of financial success. Also, while early birds’ energy dies out very quick throughout the day, night owls’ energy persists until very late at night. Be that as it may, early birds have an advantage that most activities take place from 9AM-5PM, the time when night owls are not “fully awake”.

  • An example of conventional wisdom is that Ivy League students tend to earn more in the long term in their respected fields than those who do not attend an Ivy League school. This could be proven wrong by sampling various students from Ivy League and non-Ivy League schools and seeing if the Ivy League students earn more in their fields. In the study, we could have a list of different majors and compare the two groups of students with the same major, but different educational backgrounds to see if their was any difference in wages. I do not think that it is fair to say that anyone that goes to an Ivy League will earn more than someone that does not attend one because it depends on different factors such as major, connections, and the fact that not everyone works in their field after college.

  • An example of conventional wisdom is the old saying, “no pain, no gain.” In many instances, this is a true key towards people’s success. However, this can definitely be proven wrong. Nowadays you see a lot of celebrities make it to the top without doing anything (Example: The Kardashians). Also, people have amazing talents which do not require pain to achieve greatness. Hard-work and determination can let one go far, but there is no need for pain or agony to get there all the time. This statement can be proven by surveying successful people and see how much they had to suffer on the way to the top.

  • One conventional assumption would be extrovert people are better leaders than introvert ones. The logic behind this notion is that extrovert people are more sociable, more willing to talk to people and hence they can better persuade people to follow them. The data that I refer to would be surveys from real followers and leaders themselves.

  • I have often heard the conventional wisdom that red cars get more tickets than any other color cars on the road. In order to test this piece of conventional wisdom you could look back on previous records of speeding tickets. You could compare the amount of speeding tickets given to black cars as to red cars in 2015, 2010, 2005, ect. and see if there was a trend. If there are more speeding tickets given to red cars for every year you analyze, you could then say the conventional wisdom has been proven.

  • An example of conventional wisdom is that workout can lose the weight. However, only workout itself can hardly change the weight of people, unless you go on a diet at the same time. To test this statement, you can record the changes in weight of two groups of people. One group do the workout but eat the normal food, including fried chickens or heavy cheese; the other group both need to workout and go on a diet (only having the vegetables and chicken breast). The result of the test would show if going on a diet is necessary for losing weight.

  • One example of conventional wisdom that I have heard throughout my life is the saying, “an apple a day keeps the doctor away.” To test the legitimacy of this saying, I would simply conduct two month-long experiments. For the first month, the test subject would consume an apple once every day, and information such as his/her blood sugar level, body temperature, etc. would be recorded daily. For the second month, I would simply record the subject’s health information such as before, but the subject has to be apple-free for the whole month. By comparing these two months of information, one might be able to learn whether one would be more or less immune to catching certain sicknesses (the flu, stomach virus, etc.).

  • One example is the belief that left handers are smarter than right handers. These can be supported by the father of modern criminology, he points out left handers criminals are more than right handers. Left-handers were more than three times as common in criminal populations as they were in everyday life. There are also can be supported by self-reported, like divided left handers and right handers into two groups and do IQ test.

  • An example of conventional wisdom that I have heard throughout my entire life is that “hamburger makes people fat easily”. We can conduct a survey to test whether this statement is true or not. First of all, we can randomly select some healthy people around 22 years. Secondly, divide these people into two groups, on group of people eat hamburger only every day. Another group have common meals as usual. The important thing is that these two group people do not exercise. Every week, we can collect the data about fat content from two groups and figure out average. After a month, the final fat content we get from two group people is the result. The difference between two data (fat content) can confirm or disprove the statement.

  • A common conventional wisdom that people believe is that those who are smart would be more easy to get a high grade. In order to test it, we can do an experiment. Initially, we can select some people with different IQ. Secondly, we ask them spend same amount of time to study same things which they are never engage in before. After a period, we can test them how much they have possessed. If those who have higher IQ do better in the test, that can prove this common conventional wisdom.

  • An example of conventional wisdom I have heard is that in baseball left-handed batters often do worse against left-handed pitchers rather than right-handed pitchers and vice versa for right-handed batters. Often you see teams calling a left-hander from the bullpen in order to get a power hitting left-handed hitter out late in the game. The data I would get to test this is the statistics of batters against their own dominant hand and if it tends to be any worse than against the opposite hand that they favor.

  • A piece of conventional wisdom I’ve been told is to not talk about other people, because the people you gossip with are just as likely to turn around and gossip about you. This could be tested by gossiping with two other people, and then having a few other people gossip with them, and see what they reveal. This is a ripple effect that can be tested by having people act as spies, in a sense, and collect data regarding their conversations with other people.

  • One conventional wisdom that I’ve heard about growing up is that it is easier for tall people to play sports, specially basketball. However, this can be disproven because you see many people who are considered “short” in NBA but they are really good at it. Being short in NBA is if your height is 6’2″ and below. However, there are people that are in the NBA and their height is like 5’7″. For example, Nate Robinson, even though his height is 5’7″, he dominated the league for many seasons. However, basketball experts do say that being tall increases the percentage of your shot to go in.

  • An example of conventional wisdom is to create good study habits you must find a quiet place to study and study one concept at a time. Recent studies suggest switching locations while studying may help you memorize the information more effectively. As well as incorporating many different study modes in a single study session will help you memorize the material better. This could be tested by having two groups of people study for the same test. While one group studies the “traditional” way students are taught to study in school, the other group will study by switching locations and studying many different materials at a time. The data I would collect is the studying material for the test and the grades the students received on the test.

  • In my mosaics class we have been discussing the idea of justice as we read Plato’s Republic. Though opinions and definitions of justice are varied, a common understanding of it is the saying “an eye for an eye”, which I think could be an example of conventional wisdom. This introduced the topic of the death penalty and if it truly yields justice, and therefore brings peace to victim’s families. However, many would argue against the death penalty, and suggest that simply practicing forgiveness is the best way to move forward. Data could be used to analyze this controversial subject by conducting a series of surveys, asking people who personally know someone who has been killed, and the perpetrator has faced the death penalty, if they feel better about their loss as a result of the felon’s fate.

  • One example of conventional wisdom that came immediately to mind was the saying that “You get what you pay for.” The reason this piece of wisdom could be tested so easily is because it could really be argued either way. For example, you can test it by comparing the longevity of video game consoles. You can compare it to when people first bought the PS3 and when people first bought the Nintendo Wii as well. One is cheaper than the other, so we can find data about whether the system lasting longer had anything to do with that. Does the price really determine the quality of a product? Another test could be with investing, looking up data from stocks seeing if people really get what they pay for. Many examples are out there, but these could have strong cases.

  • A piece of conventional wisdom that I have heard is that it is more difficult to play at certain stadiums in the country (college football) compared to playing at their home stadiums. It is thought that by playing at a loud stadium, like Death Valley at Clemson or the Swamp at the University of Florida, away teams that are not used to that kind of pressure will crumble and fail. The data you could use to test it would be looking at an offensive statistic like completion percentage for the quarterback and compare it over a season to how well he preforms at that stadium, and then take your result from that once instance and see how it effects all the away quarterbacks that have played there in the past 5 years.

  • The conventional wisdom I have heard is kind of physical staff, which is the bigger proportion will produce bigger friction force. I would cut one piece wood in to two different size cube and let them pass the same table in same speed, and see if they have different friction force. After test, this conventional wisdom is wrong, the friction force have no business with the contact area’s big or small.

  • One example of conventional wisdom is that people earn more money as they get higher degrees. This can be tested by surveying random individuals with different degree levels (high school, bachelor, master, etc.) and collecting data on their income and benefits. The result of the survey would show the relationship between one’s salary and the level of degree they’re having.

  • Some people said that students get better grades if they spend more time on study than others. I think there should have some relations between with the hours of working and the grades, but this won’t be correct every times. I can collect the average studied hours for each day and the final grade of some students in a specific semester. And draw a picture with this two variables, to test is there an actual relation between the hours we spend on study and our grades.

  • An example of conventional wisdom in the sports world is that taller quarterbacks are more accurate than shorter quarterbacks. This belief stems from the logic that a tall quarterback can see over the linemen and therefore see the field more easily than a short quarterback. One could very feasibly test this by comparing the completion percentage of the 5 or so tallest QB’s in the league compared to the 5 or so shortest QB’s.

  • An example of conventional wisdom is that Americans think Chinese students are smart and good at Math. In fact,one reason is that Math is taught differently and more difficult in China. Besides,this statement does not apply to all the Chinese students. To test it, I would give out IQ tests to every chinese student in one university and also ask the admission of the university for the math grades in high schools or the math scores in the SAT of these chinese students.

  • A piece of conventional wisdom I have often heard is “You have to earn more.” In today’s society, there is a lot of pressure on picking majors that lead towards more lucrative, high paying careers. With higher cost of living, the potential costs of starting a family, and other various expenses, money has become a major concern for any individual entering adulthood. With that said, money should not be the main motivator for anyone when it comes to picking a career or any type of work for that matter. If money is the sole motivator for any type of career, the individual will likely end up in a job that they do not like very much, and isolate themselves into a lifestyle that does not make them happy. While money should be an important consideration in any future career, any individual should greatly consider if they will enjoy the line of work they would like to go into, since that most of the time becomes so much more important than the compensation that correlates with it.

  • An example of conventional wisdom that I have heard is that medicine has the same effect on men and women. However, it’s not true. For examples, aspirin can help men to prevent myocardial infarction, but it won’t work on women. To prove it, you can gather the information from the department which tests drugs effect on people, compare the information between men and women to see the same drug used on men and women had different function.

  • People always say to get your work done on time and not wait till the last second to hand an assignment or write an essay. It is assumed that by doing it ahead of time and not cramming in the last hours of the due date that you will receive a better grade on that assignment. This can be tested by handing in a series assignments fours days before it is due with no stress to get them done and hand in another series a assignments last minute where you have to cram to get them done. The results of the grades will determine wether it is better to get your work done early instead of waiting till the last minute.

  • An example of conventional wisdom is that many believe that a college degree makes someone smarter than someone who didn’t go to college. This is extremely difficult to test because what defines someone as “smart”. Someone who is good at math, english, history? Often the people that are considered “book smart” lack common sense. Coming from a smaller town I know plenty of people who never went to college and are just as smart if not smarter than myself.

  • In particular, one specific piece of conventional wisdom that has impacted my life was Malcolm X’s quote “The future belongs to those who prepare for it today”. The ideal behind this is that those who maintain a well-organized, regimented lifestyle will overall be able to function better in society, and have the ability to maintain a higher status and position in their particular fields. To test this one, could issue a survey across all fields that questions the participants lifestyles in terms of cleanliness, hygiene and organization. Using this in-depth data, one would be able to construct a scatter plot to determine the accuracy of this claim. If cleanliness correlates to success and renown, one would be able to dictate that this hypothesis is likely to be true.

  • An example of conventional wisdom is hiring people with disability will be costly for the business. This is in fact not true and there are studies that have been done, which states that over half of the accommodations cost less than $500. You can test this out by gathering data from various companies to see how much is spent in providing reasonable accommodation for the disabled.

  • A piece of conventional wisdom that I have heard is that the tallest man running for president always wins the election best only upon the him being the tallest man running. It is believe that he who is tallest captures the most attention of the voters both on stage and when grouped around his opponents. One famous example often refereed in this case is the election of Abraham Lincoln (which is where I believe this myth started), and to my knowledge it has not ever been broken (with the possible exception of FDR who did stand during debates and was tall but spent most of his time in a wheel chair). In order to test this, I would simply need to gather data from presidential medical records, and where that is not available I can use pictures from debates to contrast and compare. Should this myth be proven true, it could have catastrophic impacts on the future of humanity, seeing how Trump is the tallest man running for president.

  • Given the time of the year, and the fact that two of our readings for the week were by Nate Silver, I have decided to use the conventional wisdom that in football, defense wins championships. Although 538 did just publish a piece this week that this year’s final four might be the best ever collectively on the defensive side of the ball, it has been proven that scoring has gone up, and the NFL, to cater to perceived fan desires, has enacted rule changes that make it easier for the offense to score. A way to determine if offensive or defensive strength is more likely to lead a team to the Lombardi trophy would be to compare past champions’ offensive and defensive ratings through statistics such as offensive and defensive DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average).

  • An example of conventional wisdom that I always hear, especially living with an Asian family is that “you have to be doctors or engineers to be successful”. Although these professions might give a higher income, these are not the only jobs that can lead to a successful life (stable income, happy life, etc). A way to test this is to gather a few people from the stated profession (doctors, engineers) and also a few people from other sectors such as accountants from the business field, baristas from the food and beverages market and even people who are starting or have started their own business/company. Then, we gather relevant data such as income, working hours, happiness/stress level and amount of free-time to do non-work things. After that, we can compare does really working as doctors and engineers the only way to be successful in life.

  • There is one example of conventional wisdom that I heard and I also believe it is true. It is if you read more books in you childhood you will become smarter. When people were young, their knowledge of world wasn’t clearly and maturity and their mind easily being affected by outside factors. So people can understand the world and get knowledge through reading books. Meanwhile, the more important benefit people can get from reading books is the way of thinking will be developed potentially. For example, people will solve the problems not only sanely but also emotionally. We can easily to prove this wisdom. We can tell how to present a person is smarter or not is he or she knows a lot of things that someone else doesn’t know. Someone will say if we experience lots of things we can also know a lot of things that others don’t know. This is true, however when we were young we don’t have much time or chances to experiencing. Reading books is the easiest way to make people become smarter.

  • A piece of conventional wisdom that I have heard is that when men start lifting when they are younger they are more likely to have stunted growth; they’ll be short. This could be disproved or supported by reported heights of men who lifted as pre-teens or young teens, as they approach twenty three (the age where men stop growing). However, another thing to consider is genetics, which would have to be identified before the reported heights occur; if someone is supposed to be short.

  • A commonly misguided example of conventional wisdom is the effect of salt within your diet. Conventional wisdom states that salt in your diet is detrimental to your health, whereas studies prove the opposite. Scientists examine the health and effects of salt within peoples diets and discovered that people can even have salt deficiencies and are required to eat more.

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Laurel Miller (instructor) 9:30am-10:30am, Tuesdays and Thursdays, Speakman Hall 210 or by appointment.
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